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Matt Cronin's Day 8 Picks

Written by Matt Cronin
Monday, 03 September 2007
5-ANDY RODDICK V. 9-TOMAS BERDYCH Roddick has looked terrific in his first three contests, but this contest will be a much greater challenge, as the young Czech is a big server with hard groundstrokes who is just itching to break through at a Grand Slam. He doesn't have Roddick's experience, fight or familiarity with Arthur Ashe Stadium, but he should be able to more than match him off the ground and on a great day, should be able to duplicate his serving prowess. But Berdych has been one of those up-and-comers who has consistently fallen off at the Slams, which leads one to think that he's mentally weak. While Roddick has certainly has his problems at the majors this year, he did win the 2003 US Open and reached last year's final. He may not have the stroke production of some of the other elite players, but outside of his stunning loss to Richard Gasquet in the Wimbledon quarters this year, he's been pretty dependable when he gets a lead. The question here is not whether or not Berdych can beat Roddick down when he's confident, it's whether the Czech will show enough grit on an American show court. Roddick will have to be as handy at the net as he has been in his previous rounds, but when the fifth set arrives -- and it will after four sweaty and dramatic sets -- Berdych will grow soft while Roddick's resolve will harden. Take Roddick in five to enter the quarters against Federer, a very scary prospect. 6-JAMES BLAKE V. 10-TOMMY HAAS Mr. Night Match, Blake, has provided weeks worth of entertainment in his last two dramatic victories over Fabrice Santoro and Stefan Koubek. However, this contest will be a much greater test of his level as former world No. 2 Haas can match his power and has a better serve, but is nowhere near as fast and, unlike Blake, shies away from the net. If he plays as well as he is capable of, Blake should reach his first US Open semifinal, but he's been spotty at times and cannot afford to lose control of his first serve against Haas. If he does so, the German will feast on his second serves and Blake will have to take too many risks on his return games. The key for Blake is to maintain an even keel during the entire match and not get overly excited. Haas is bound to have some hot streaks and Blake needs only to survive them and wait until the German veteran begins to fade. Even though Haas is a tough opponent and his probable quarterfinal foe, Nikolay Davydenko, is very talented, this is the best quarter Blake could have asked for and he may never have a better opportunity to reach the final four. Blake will win the second five setter of his career in a rousing victory over Haas. 1-ROGER FEDERER V. FELICIANO LOPEZ In the biography, “The Roger Federer Story, Quest For Perfection,” Rene Stauffer writes this of these two competitors Wimbledon 2003 confrontation, which Federer won and then went on to win his first major: “Suddenly, in the warm-up of his match with Lopez, he felt a stabbing pain in his lower back after hitting a practice serve. 'I thought, my God, what's this? I couldn't move anymore. Everything had seized up…' After the second game of the match, he sat down in his chair, even though it was not a changeover, and called for the trainer. Anxious minutes ticked away. While he was being treated with a heat cream by the trainer during his injury timeout, he lay on the grass turf and looked up at the sky in desperation. 'I thought about giving up,' he said. 'But then I hoped for a miracle or that the next black cloud would bring rain again.' His wish for rain did not come true, but a minor miracle did happen. Federer was able to continue play and went on to win a hard-fought, but straight-set 7-6 (5), 6-4, 6-4 victory.” That victory keyed Federer's run to his first major and now he gets F.Lo in the round of 16 again — this time, at the US Open. But on grass, the Spaniard's twisting lefty serves bites like a rattlesnake and on hardcourts, great returners like Federer can get on top of it. This match should be very entertaining, as Lopez will chip and charge and try to limit Federer's opportunities to bully him from the backcourt. But Federer has been practicing against lefties all year long in an attempt to improve his chances against his main rival, Rafael Nadal. Lopez doesn't return or move with anywhere near as quickly as Nadal does and will be unable to break Federer, who has plenty of returning practice against a big server in his win over John Isner. Federer won't be seriously threatened and will triumph in three sets. 6-ANNA CHAKVETADZE V. TAMIRA PASZEK When the 20-year-old Chakvetadze can be called the veteran in match, you know that the tour is going to the greenhorns. The super-talented Austrian Paszek is only 16 years old, and already owns the guts and know-how to be able to best seeds at the Slams, having taken down Patty Schnyder in a third-set tiebreaker in the previous round. She has a rock solid build and blinding groundstrokes and never seems to get nervous. Lock her into the top 10 some time during the next two years. But with Maria Sharapova gone out of the bottom half of the draw Chakvetadze is now the favorite to reach her first Slam final, because she's the smartest, quickest, most deceptively lethal player on tour. The Cincy and Stanford champ a wisp of a woman, but counterpunches with direction and force and has few weaknesses save for an occasional emotional walkabout. She rarely hits the ball the same way and Paszek will be confused about what her strategy should be. The Russian will yank the Austrian teen around in a straight set win. 4-SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA V. VICTORIA AZARENKA Kuznetsova, the 2004 champ, must be loving her quarter on paper, but the Belarusian Azarenka showed in her stomping of Martina Hingis that she can't be taken lightly. Like a lot of the kids, she can rake her groundstrokes and unlike a few of them, has terrific junior credentials and decent head on her shoulders. But she won't be able to overpower Kuznetsova, who loves the US Open courts and is murdering her inside out forehand again. Sveta may not be a mental rock when tournaments grow deeper, but she rarely loses to young powerballers without top-10 stuff and Arizona resident Azarenka hasn't shown that level yet. Take Kuznetsova in a tough two setter. 18-SHAHAR PEER V. 30 AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA Radwanska was the recipient of a total mental down by defending champ Maria Sharapova, but she's not going to get that from the Israeli Peer, who can grind as well as she does. Peer's problem is not retrieving and keeping the ball in the court, it's not playing ambitiously enough, but she stepped up in a big way in her thrilling three-set win over Nicole Vaidisova and may have turned the corner after a lousy summer. The Pole Radwanska is cheery, scrappy and not without weapons, but she's still too much a work in progress to take two significant victories in a row. She'll take an early set, but Peer will triumph in three. http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2007-09-03/200709031188881212437.html !