Abkhazia Institute for Social and Economic Research

"The King is dead!  Long live the King!"  This phrase was the foundation of the Western monarchies for centuries.  Many ambitious heirs waited impatiently for the throne to vacate so they would experience the rush of “ultimate” power.  These words would end or start bloodshed; the renaissance, would end or start the prosperity.  Fortunately, nothing lasts forever and the Western society evolved out of these old traditions and only a few have retained them as a tourist attraction.  People hold the key to the thrones of the West and modern day "Kings" serve the will of these people, or so we like to think.

Russians have a wonderful proverb - "There is no family without an ugly creature".  The literal translation of the Russian word for "an ugly creature" is circus freak.  How fitting!  A relatively "normal" European society has its own "ugly creature" – the Russian Federation.  In times when much of the civilized world is trying to conserve their identities before the onslaught of the politically correct, cultural diverse and an assault of the radical Islamic terrorists, Russians are worried whether President Putin will change the constitution and stay for another term, or become puppeteer and step behind the throne; who then will become the Manchurian Candidate?

 For a while, there was a question about the 3rd term.  With the newest legislation, which allowed GasProm (a mega government corporation in charge of the natural resources of Russia) create its own armed forces, it is clear that President Putin has chosen to be the power behind the throne rather than suffer through the Western criticism.  GasProm and NefteProm, are two corporations which control the Oil and Natural Gas resources which have allowed Russia to "flex its muscle" in these recent months.  If President Putin would become the head of both corporations of even one, he will have a military force, which would rival the Russian Army.  This will, no doubt, ensure that the successor will not become “infected” by free will.  Though, all this might sound like a plot from a James Bond movie, it is poignant and unfortunately a predictable reality.
 
For some time, President Putin has kept his House in order.  No more instability, uncertainty and the fear of chaos; but a growing economy and controlled inflation.  From the first glimpse, things are moving in the right direction.  However, perceptions can be deceiving.  In 1974, Leonid Brezhnev came to power in the USSR.  This change would coincide with an increase in the price of crude oil and the start of the period which came to be known as "Zastoi" (complete stagnation).  At this time, the Soviet Union became fully dependant on the oil revenues and the vast majority of the industrial sector became fully subsidized.  As expected, oil prices were reigned in and, as a result, Gorbachev was forced to start Glasnost and Perestroika in a last ditch effort to save the empire.  By this time, it was too late to revive, and has been dead for some time, the USSR ceased to exist.  Present day Russia fell into the same trap, with one difference, if during the Brezhnev era profits were shared with the rest of the country, in Putin’s era money is consolidated in the hands of the few.  One can say Russian elite learned its lesson, unfortunately a wrong lesson.  As a result, today more then ever the divide between the few “haves” and the numerous “have-nots” is growing at an alarming rate.  The most daunting part of the Russian state of affairs is their Military, who has enormous power and an even greater appetite.  Putin managed to keep them fed with the second Chechen war, while he consolidated the power at home.  But then, the public demanded stability and a "solution" to the Chechen problem was taken out of the hands of the Generals and put into the hands of the Chechens themselves.  What came of those Generals?  How are they reacting to not being invited to share the oil profits?
 
In 1991, two years after the Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan, Soviet military leaders organized a coup, and only by the heroic resistance of the citizens of Moscow, they were unable to succeed.  Will these citizens resist now?  Or will the hungry millions follow the Generals who will promise them sweet fruits of the Zastoi era?  Putin has thrown a few bones from the oil money in their direction.  Military reform, increased military budget, funds allocated for orders of new equipment but it is said, "The appetite comes during a meal".  Will this be enough?  Today, more than ever, alcoholism is a national epidemic for Russia.  Suicide rates are up, the rate of prostitution is up, human trafficking, drug use and worst of all Russia is rolling down the slippery slope of nationalism with hues of Nazism.
 
I don't think there are many countries, even the less fortunate ones, who allow a corporation to sustain its own armed forces.  I have heard of a guard service, or of bodyguards, I have even heard of armed security teams but to have a standing army… this is the first.  Would America allow Texaco or Exxon/Mobil to have its own armed forces with tanks and attack helicopters?  Will the United Kingdom allow BP to have marine detachments with assault boats and attack planes?  The answer is most definitely NO!  What kind of democracy and open society is Russia building?  To borrow a quote from a popular cartoon Ogre…"One of a kind!"  Imagine a country where large corporations are allowed to keep their own armies.  Now, add some nuclear weapons to that mix, and you get a nightmare.  Stability, promised by Vladimir Putin, is just as sound as a house of cards.  Unfortunately, constructors of this house of cards chose to build their "tour de force" not indoors but in the open plane where winds of instability roam free.
 
A few months ago, Russian military helicopters bombed the administrative building in Upper Abkhazia, a mountainous region of Georgia.  A few weeks ago Russian military planes dropped a 1500-pound bomb near a Georgian village, with God's grace the bomb failed to explode; and just yesterday, an invasion of Georgian airspace, by the Russian Air force, caused Georgia to shoot down a Russian attach plane.  All along, the Russian government has denied it's involvement in these incidents yet there is no other explanation, unless one can believe Russia’s redirect…that the Georgian government is bombing its own people.  For the Russian people, that is a perfectly acceptable explanation.  God knows the Russian Government has done it in the past, but for a small country that is desperately trying to show the world it's commitment to building a free and an open society, to bomb its own people is hardly plausible!
 
Is Moscow's denial of these occurrences a hidden cry for help?  Is Moscow letting us know that there are elements within its military that are not under full control of the central government?  Could these be the early signs of what is to come?  Are we, in America, willing to sit back and watch the atrocities as they unfold and allow millions more to suffer or are will the “Reagan” of our time emerge?