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Matt Cronin's Day 10 Picks

Written by Matt Cronin
Tuesday, 04 September 2007
1-ROGER FEDERER V. 5-ANDY RODDICK So many things have to go right for America's top male to win this match, but most importantly, Roddick has to believe in his chances and cannot afford to let Federer speed away early. He has to go at Federer with everything he has, including forgetting about spinning second serves in and going for first serves on both his chances. He has to get in Federer's face, hit hard, deep and creative approach shots, and put away his volleys. He has to guess which way Federer is going with his passes, because the Swiss can go every which way off the ground and if Roddick just waits until Federer hits and then tries to react, he'll be a sitting duck because he's not that quick at the net. Roddick also has to take some risks on Federer's second serves and go for his forehands, especially at the Swiss' weaker (yet impressive) backhand side. But that's just strategy, because this match is all about execution. Roddick's ability to bob and weave his way into a fifth set will be critical. Everything has to be working right for the American, who is 1-13 against Federer and coming off a brutal loss in the Australian Open semis. Roddick realizes that Federer is better than he is, and the Swiss is ultra confident coming into this match, saying he has faced greater challenges before. It will be up to Roddick to show Federer that he's a little overconfident and bring this match into a fifth set, where Federer will begin to feel the pressure and the crowd will be deep into the match screaming for an upset. While that scenario would be delightful for US fans, it's not going to happen, because while Roddick is still working on improving critical elements in his game, Federer is merely applying spot remover to his repertoire. Federer will triumph in four sets. 4-NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO V. 10-TOMMY HAAS Once again, Davydenko is working his way through the draw quietly and once again, the Russian will reach the semifinals. Major props to Haas for pulling off dramatic five-set victories over Grosjean and Blake, but his US Open bus stops here, as Davydenko is very aware how to wear down tired foes and won't make as many silly mistakes as Haas' previous two foes did. Sure, it's easy to see Haas zoning with his long, classic groundstrokes for a set or two, but Davydenko is super quick, is deceptively powerful and is out to prove that he's not just renting the No. 4 ranking. Davydenko is a pleasure to watch when he's on and will put on a clinic in a straight-set win over Haas. 3-JELENA JANKOVIC V. 12-VENUS WILLIAMS It's tough to pick against an in-form Williams sister at the US Open, which is why it's nearly impossible to see Venus going down here, even though Jankovic ran her silly at the French Open. Venus was remarkably impressive in blowing past Ana Ivanovic in the previous round, who had been playing at a better level than Jankovic is. The Serbian is fast, has a murderous two-handed backhand and loves to revel in the bright lights. But she has not been that impressive this summer and appears a little flat. Her serve is largely ineffective and her forehand is lacking steam, perhaps because she's been overplaying. Venus does have to play well to win this match because if Jankovic is going to show up with her best stuff, it's going to be in Ashe Stadium, where there are thousands of eyes upon her. But Venus is serving so well right now and hitting her returns so freely that it's hard to see her reverting back to her error-strewn form in May. Take Venus in straight sets. 4- SVETLANA KUZNETOSOVA V. AGNES SZAVAY Most of the unknowns have excited the women's draw now, but the 18-year-old Hungarian Szavay remains. She might be the most obscure player of the Eastern European lot, given that this is only her third Slam appearance. But it's obvious she can play, as she reached the New Haven final and here, she has scorched a solid group in Michaella Krajicek, Nadia Petrova and Julia Vakulenko. She hits hard, hustles and has yet to show fear of the big occasion. But 2004 US Open champ Kuznetsova is playing well, too, and has far more experience contending in Slam quarterfinals. She's no mental rock, but she’s been holding up well in the place she first came to fame. She's crushing her big forehand, moving lightly and serving efficiently. She realizes that she has a great chance to get back to the final and is doing everything in her power to make sure she gets there. As long as she doesn't allow the Hungarian to take it to her early, Kuznetsova will push through in two tough sets. 6-ANNA CHAKVETADZE V. 18-SHAHAR PEER Since Maria Sharapova was upset in the third round, Chakvetadze has been the favorite to get through to her first Slam final, as the 20-year-old Russian has had the best summer of anyone on her side. With each passing match, she is getting better control of volatile emotions, which is certainly her Achilles’ heel. Chakvetadze is the smoothest player among the top 6, but the slight blonde is lacking a little power, which can hurt her against top 5 players. That also might affect her against Peer, who isn't going to give her the pace she desires, so Chakvetadze is going to have to come up with a bit of her own zip. Peer loves the long grind and Chakvetadze is vulnerable in tortuous matches because she gets frustrated if things aren't going her way. !