Abkhazia Institute for Social and Economic Research

1-JUSTINE HENIN V. 12-VENUS WILLIAMS
What's better when picking matches? To go with your gut, or to go with your head? Maybe a combination of both. If you instinctually feel that a player is going to win and then reason how she can win even if her opponent is playing her best, that's the best way to go. And that's why I'm going with Venus here, even though on a great day, Henin is just as good as Williams on hard courts. Justine is promising that she won't have a letdown in this match, like she did at Wimbledon after she survived Serena and then was shocked by Marion Bartoli.

But here's the major catch in this match: Venus is 7-1 against Henin, and no other elite player has come close to that kind of record against her. Sure, the two haven't played since the Aussie Open 2003, when Venus bested the Belgian in the semis, but that was before Henin won her six Slam crowns. Yet Justine admits that Venus troubles her, and until she can prove it to herself that she has the weapons to beat her, she won't go on court with a lot of confidence.

Venus served great at times in her dramatic three-setter over Jelena Jankovic, but she also served poorly at times, too. She is going to have to serve much better against Henin, who will punish her second serves and won't be giving up as much ground on her forehand side as JJ did. Venus said that Jankovic and Henin are similar-type players, but they are really not: Henin has a much better serve, forehand and volley than the Serb does, plus she is a paragon of mental toughness.

What that means is that Venus is going to have to be ultra-consistent and powerful off the ground, make sure that her approach shots are sound when she comes to the net, and make sure not to get overanxious on Henin's serves. She needs to both grind down and overpower the Belgian -- a very difficult task.

This semifinal is essentially the final, as either woman will be a substantial favorite against Kuznetsova or Chakvetadze. Henin is a great player, who is more than capable of deigning a perfect strategy and executing it against Venus, but the elder Williams had her number before and will have it again in a stirring three-set victory.


4-SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA V. 6-ANNA CHAKVETADZE
I've been riding little Anna C's train for five straight matches, and there are few reasons to jump off now, except for the fact that playing an accomplished elder who has beaten her in their only two meetings and will be a much more difficult foe than figuring familiar peers, like Shahar Peer. Kuznetsova will not choke this match, so Chakvetadze will have to earn every point, and part of that will be going slightly outside of her comfort zone and taking a few more risks, especially when she gets opportunities to hammer Sveta's backhand.

Chakvetadze should start out carefully and make sure that Kuznetsova is locked in before she takes major risks, but once she is, she has to mix and match at rapid speed because the 22-year-old loves a straight-ahead match. But Kuznetsova doesn't like it when she can't find any rhythm with her Barcelona-taught, man's style clay-court game.

Kuznetsova has had a quiet year at No. 4 and would love another opportunity to play a US Open final. The last time she did in 2004, she clubbed Elena Dementieva in the final. In order to get there, she'll have to serve big, come in whenever possible, and try to rush Chakvetadze, a 20-year-old who is still vulnerable to an emotional breakdown. While it's easy to see the Grand Slam semifinal greenhorn getting frustrated, Chakvetadze's level has been super-high all summer long on hard courts, and she's not ready to fade yet. Chakvetadze will enter her first US Open final with a three-set win.